In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit) is more like a Pro-Wrestling show, and President Trump is stirring American citizens up just like what he did for his own election. The opponent Kim Jong-Un is a villain in the show who does pretty good job as a show man, which reminds me of a Japanese villain wrestler called Great Togo who used to be famous. The current North Korea is more like the Empire of Japan.
Kim Jong-Un is also an actor on that show, so he was wearing the Mao suit in Singapore despite of the hot temperature just because it made the Pro-Wrestling show more interesting. President Trump and Kim Jong-Un were joking at the first meeting saying, "This could be a cool scene of a movie.h and yes, it was truly well made.
North Korea is a small country that only has the size of one of the prefectures in Japan, and the United States, which is considered as one of the strongest countries on Earth, is troubled by such country. It is because there is China, which is another strong country on Earth, back of North Korea.
The intention of Trump is to get North Korea on his side; however, both North Korea and South Korea have been survived by the tightrope diplomacy and act like a bat to do favor for bigger countries. China knows such things very well by now.
From the geographic perspective, Japan has the same situation, as it is also located in between bigger countries. However, from the geopolitical perspective, the strategic value cannot be compared. The Korean Peninsula is just a part of eastern end of the Eurasian continent, and it is just a buffer zone with Japan from Chinese point of view. Japan, on the other hand, is at a key position in the Pacific Ocean. If you hold down Japan then you can seize the sea area from Hawaii to the Indian Ocean.
China cannot invade the Pacific Ocean simply because Japan is there. That is why the United States wants Japan to be under their wings, as they know they can lose the Pacific Ocean if they let Japan go. Trump is trying to build an encirclement network against China, and he abandoned untrustworthy South Korea and is attempting to get North Korea on his side instead as North Korea completed nuclear missiles.
"Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" means that the American nuclear umbrella no longer works for Korea, but Trump clearly agreed to it. In the near future, our neighbor called South Korea may be gone, but it is totally their fault from their gbat diplomacyh.
The United States is a nation which change the color and taste as the president changes. I feel that the United States when Obama was President and when Trump is President are totally different. Depends on the political party of America, either Republican or Democratic, the foreign policy changes significantly, so Japan must pay close attention.
In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the United States would go inward, whether 9.11 happened or not, and it became clearer as they got President Trump.
Mr. Guchi-, who used to work in America for more than 30 years, has met Trump in a business scene. According to Mr. Guchi-, White people who behave outrageously and take racist actions in public got so noticeable nowadays, and as he said, there are lots of crimes or matters, which involve racism, happened. We can say the birth of President Obama, the first black president of the Untied States, has brought a sense of crisis or danger to white people, and they revealed their true nature. That was a motive force of the birth of President Trump.
Many Americans do not know where Japan is or even where New York City is. They are just delighted to see the show that their president had talks with Kim Jong-Un for the first time in history as an entertainment.
I want to know the real intention of American citizens whether they will keep supporting Trump as they are now.
No matter what agreement is made at 2018 North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit ) on June 12 or at any other occasion, North Korea will not hesitate to do a flip-flop and break promises as it is their unique speciality.
You can clearly see their diplomatic duplicity (balancing diplomacy they call and bat diplomacy we call) at this summit. But since the United State, China and Russia have strong military powers, they can easily apply military and economic sanctions when being betrayed. The issue is that because Japan does not have a military power, even if North Korea or South Korea betrays, there is no way to apply a military sanction against them.
That is why Japan is a ggreat neighborh for South and North Korea or even for the United States, China and Russia when they got some bills to pay. Japanese politicians will not hesitate to spend money for them as it comes from tax anyway and not from their own wallet. Also, it may bring some benefits or kickbacks to them. This is what is happening in the diplomacy between Japan and South/North Korea.
Then who is paying for the tax? Japanese citizens are, of course. If it helps the victims of the abduction come back, we are more than happy to pay; however, I am being skeptical about that at this summit. The abduction itself was done by Kim Jong-Il, a father of Kim Jong-Un and a former supreme leader of North Korea, and Kim Jong-Un was not directly involved. Therefore, I am afraid he may ask for economic aid in exchange.
In order to avoid that situation, the Prime Minister Abe was repeatedly asking the President Trump to bring up the abduction issue. Then Trump will take advantage of it. The Prime Minister Abe should think about a plan B in case there is no response from them as well as the warning that we will pay nothing for no outcome.
At this summit, it may be settled with no disagreement as the President Trump said. But Kim Jong-Un may do a flip-flop when he goes back to his country. Also, if he is with China or Russia, he will start flattering with them no matter what. This is what we call gbat diplomacyh. In the end, we can say North Korea has no power, and this summit is more like a professional wrestling show.
As it was written in Machiavellifs gThe Princeh, a small country in between stronger countries will be destroyed unless it clarifies which side it takes. Kim Jong-Un needs to choose China or the United States otherwise the two countries will destroy North Korea. Even South Korea has to support the United States whole-heartedly or the United States will destroy them.
From Machiavellifs perspective, North Korea must be on Chinafs side, yet due to the bat diplomacy, both China and the United States are being skeptical about South & North Korea. I do not think Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-Un have ever read gThe Princeh. As you can see from the history, gbat diplomacyh only leads the country to the end.
Especially, the Korean Peninsula is surrounded by powerful countries such as China, Russia and Japan, and also it is divided into two regions. Such small country in between stronger countries must obtain better diplomatic negotiation skills to survive; however, their diplomatic strategy only does a poor job in reality and kept miss judging on which country to take a side of.
Japan is a powerful country. It protected itself from the invasion of the Mongol empire, the ambitions of Spain and Portugal and the colonization of Britain and France. We lost in the fight with the United States and were occupied, yet we were not divided and only required to release the colonies.
In modern times, the most important matter is to choose either China or the United States to be with. North Korea and South Korea still continue to apply gbat diplomacyh in such time. Even for Japan, the decline of the United States and the emergence of China are one of the most crucial matters for not being like a Korean Peninsula.
In the news yesterday, it seemed like there was no stormy argument, but more like a friendly talk, so I guess Kim Jong-Un was flattering Trump. However, if Kim Jong-Un goes in front of Xi Jinping of China, he will start saying something different just like Moon Jae-in of South Korea. If there are no settlement between the United States and China, no decision will be made by the Korean Peninsula.
Japan was defeated in the Pacific War and did not really review the reasons and the consequences. We were defeated in the war by the United States not because of the strength of the army but the lack of capable personnel in the army and the government. Why did we have such incapable personnel as the leaders of the government and the army? I believe it is because of the severe seniority system, which might spoil personnel.
In a time when the world is stable, you may say that peoplefs ability could be improved by gaining more experiences. However, in an ever-changing and turbulent time, the past experience is useless, and only the person who anticipates the change of time can be a winner. In order to do so, people are required to have a prominent ability and foresight. On the other hand, it is the assumed that the world is never unstable in the seniority system.
In the age of the IT revolution and the AI revolution, conventional common sense does not work any longer, and people needs education and reformation that fit to the new generation. Reviewing was in need for that, but as you may see from current Japanese organization theory, things that must be changed have never changed, and people did not yet review the cause of the defeat in the Pacific War.
As it appears in the issues of Nihon Universityfs American Football Club and Ministry of Financefs manipulation of documents. When subordinates are ordered to do something by their superiors, even if it is illegal, it seems better to follow the order in the seniority system.
The Ministry of Finance has been proud of the esprit de corps for decades, but it is the organization of strong hierarchical culture just like the Japanese Army of the wartime. In addition to that, the Ministry of Finance has been considered as an elite clique, which controls current Japan. Therefore, it was publicly allowed to state some nonsense slogan such as increment of consumption tax and fiscal reconstruction.
In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I wrote against the increment of consumption tax and the fiscal reconstruction, but the Ministry of Finance just ignored all. However, with the inauguration of Abefs cabinet as well as his economic and monetary policies, Japan greatly changed the direction to the monetary easing. Yet, the deflationary constitution, which lasted for over twenty years, could not be just dismissed. I may say that it will take another twenty years to get out.
From the perspective of the exchange rate, the strong yen was blown away by Kuroda bazooka. Also, while the fiscal policy should blow off the budget deficit with active finances, because of the stupid and incapable financial bureaucrats, we are unable to do so. Even Abefs economic and monetary policies adopt the old financial policies; thus, if we do not carry out a greformh the Ministry of Finance, it seems impossible to strike an expansionary fiscal policy.
In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I pointed that the financial bureaucrats are incompetent. A series of scandals have also proved it. As the executives or superiors show their incompetence, the subordinates also follow them. The Ministry of Finance uses the young staff for persuading politicians to agree with the increment of consumption tax.
When I was a banker, I came to question the future of the bank, but at the time, we were able to make lots of money on lending them to major construction companies and real estate companies. Even though I appealed to my boss that such things would not last for a long time, the sales manager did listen at all. I once asked him to promote me to a fund manager, but all he said was gCollect more deposits.h
At that time, the bankers who collect deposits were considered good bankers, and it was not important to have the ability of foresight, so I quit the bank and got into the real estate industry. Then the Japanese government adopted an economic policy that tightened the control on the circulation of currency, which made the collapse of bubble economy in Japan. Because of the policy, the yen got really strong, and the export industry has suffered devastating blow, which caused relocation of factories to foreign countries.
We can clearly see how stupid the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan are in this twenty years. They only know what is written in textbook. It shows that they do not even understand the analogy of national finance to household economy and the fact that the governmentfs fiscal stimulus is critical to the fiscal reconstruction. Such a mechanism cannot be comprehended if there is no knowledge of microeconomic system, and I guess the financial bureaucrats may not be able to understand it.