Tuesday, August 7, 2018
Even though Trump keeps being criticized by the mass media for Russian scandal and his radical diplomatic style, the citizens still support him. Also, there are not many actions such as impeachment from parliament because the economic situation is good. Stock prices are hitting high, the growth rate of GDP is over 4% and the unemployment rate is also the lowest level.
The Abe administration has been in existence for a long time because the economic recovery continues. No matter how much the opposition party attacks, the Liberal Democratic Party wins in elections. If the economy is being good, the administration will last long, and if the economy becomes bad, the prime minister will be replaced every year like the 1990s.
Because Trump regime was considered not to last long, the staff of the administration was not quite stable, but since it has devised a completely different policy, it seems hard to align government staff. I am not sure whether Republicans of the ruling Legislative party will support Trump or not, and I do not yet know the flow of the mid-term election.
There were diplomatic critics who said that Trump 's policy toward China and North Korea are for the mid-term election, but there seems to be a bigger shift in policy. Since Japanese media reports news from what American media says, it is hard to see the true movement inside the United States. It seems like the United States is doing good from the economic perspective, and China will be defeated in the trade war with the United States.
Although Mr. Sakai Tanaka's online magazine says the collapse of the United States is inevitable, Mr. Musha has totally opposite view. Which one is correct? Mr. Tanaka wrote that the hegemony of the United States will be taken by China and will be lost, and he said that BRICS such as China would lead the world.
I believe that Mr. Musha is right. Mr. Musha also said that the Trump regime is more like imperialist, not an isolationist, a protectionist or a discriminator. Trump is clearly taking the position of strengthening military capabilities to be against China, and it made the image for President Trump changed considerably.
China misread the changes of the foreign policy of the United States, and recently China is being troubled by the trade war with the United States. Xi Jinping is being fairly quiet, and China probably will face to its crucial moment soon.
Mr. Musha said that the United States would never allow China to get stronger and stronger, and become a hegemon country alongside the United States. Thus, "How to seal China" is the top priority of them. It is pretty obvious when you see the ongoing trade war and the demolition of "Made in China 2025". China probably did not know what would happen if they made America angry.
Japan was also beaten up when it was overly excited and saying "Japan As Number One". Before wartime, Japan was thinking that if it strengthened the military power, the United States would become quiet, but Japan was actually beaten up by the Greater East Asia War. I am wondering how China will come back in the future, but I think China is learning very well from what happened to Japan.
President Trump does not know whether the high dollar rate is good or the low dollar rate is good, but Mr. Musha said, "Strong dollar is the hegemony of the United States. There are many positive aspects and few negative aspects to strengthen the economic base that supports it.". It is exactly reminiscent of the era of Reagan administration. President Trump may have an intention to become like Reagan.
Monday, July 30, 2018 (My comment)
Recently, President Trump 's economy and diplomacy seem annoying. It is all because China pissed America off. President Obama was on his "strategic patience" diplomacy, but President Trump 's diplomacy is totally opposite.
President Obama basically let China do whatever they want, and as a result, China thought they have a right to act like that. American citizens were frustrated against such an attitude of China, and that is why Trump was elected because he was the only one who insisted anti-global economy.
The global enterprises in the United States are heavily relying on China so that they cannot be tough on China. Until now, the United States has had a strategic partnership with China, but China has not responded to America's expectations while enjoying its benefits. Instead of Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping came to have a hopeless dream called world domination.
Being a world hegemony state while maintaining the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party is a nightmare for the United States, and it will not been accepted in any manner. The fact that an irregular born of President Trump was unexpected for many diplomatic experts. However, if they could see the enthusiasm of the presidential campaign, it was pretty obvious that American citizen turned to the support Trump.
Trumpfs diplomacy is led by the CIA, and the Department of State has been ignored by Trump as it had not yet decided the vice minister but having a dirty relationship with China. Many members of the Department of State resigned and became intermediaries for Chinese businesses or became a staff of Pro-China think tanks.
When Obama was President, his cabinet was full of Pro-China politicians, and Susan Rice was a promoter of G2 (The Group of Two) and anti-Japanese. Regarding this, my gstock diaryh proposed a strategy for Japan to have even stronger relationship with China than the United States, which could have caused the United States so much trouble. That is why America was trying so hard to separate Japan from China and Korea by bringing up the history issues.
The diplomacy of the United States has made a 180-degree turn, and a trade war has begun between the United States and China. Up until now, the maneuvering of China has controlled the president and the government, but it no longer works for Trump. Also, secretaries who had deep connection with China have been fired one after another. As I mentioned, the vice-minister of the Department of States is not even decided.
Even though the leading mass media and the Wall Street are criticizing Trump, it seems that the flow of public opinion cannot be changed. Furthermore, the United States and the European Union agreed to refrain from introducing new tariffs, and EU and Japan signed EPA. As you can see, the anti-China network is slowly being formed among Japan, the United States and Europe. There is also a possibility that US and UK will join the TPP as well.
China is originally a country of Chinese thought, there are no equal ally countries, only subordinate countries. As a dictatorship run by a single communist party, there is no common sense existing. They arbitrarily reclaim reefs in the South China Sea and build a military base. They insist Japan that both Senkaku and Okinawa belong to China. The United States may feel a sense of crisis.
It was the issue of AIIB accession that made it decisive, and America's isolation became even clearer. In response to this, Japanese media also made a fuss about "If we do not join AIIB, we will missed the bus.h. Any international financial institution cannot be established without dollar and yen of the United States and Japan. The real G2 is the currency system controlled by Japan and the United States.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
As I wrote many times in my "stock diary", the trade war between the United States and China will become a long-standing "war" as it went into full swing. The United States crushed the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and then attacked Japan and crushed Japan. When Japanese yen was picked up to the 70-yen range, the export industry in Japan chased great damage.
Japan did not collapse like the Soviet Union, but it has completely lost its momentum. Since Japan is a colony of the United States after all, America noticed that there is no meaning to crush its own colony. In my "stock diary", I have repeatedly asked, "Does Japan's weakening bring any benefit to the United States?"
On the other hand, "stock diary" has proposed a strategy called "Japan is playing dead" against the United States. Japan took a strategy to quietly disappear from the front of the United States by following the principle of nonresistance. We did not do things like sanctions against sanctions like China, but chose the path of weakening themselves.
Even in the Greater East Asia War, Japan only wished to maintain the nation, and surrendered unconditionally. It also called the "second defeat war" in the 1990s, and MacArthur 's cone pipe was sent to the Secretary of the Treasury, Summers, who crushed Japan. I do not know whether Americans are stupid or not, but Japan has gone helpless.
After Japan lost in the Greater East Asia War and became helpless, the United States fought in the Korean War and brought tens of thousands of American soldiers to death. This is a proof that the US government is stupid and repeating stupid things in the Vietnam War. America will have to pay the price if they make Japan disabled.
Trump is repeating it again now. I do not mean that Trump is stupid, but he would have to face a direct war with China if he makes Japan disabled. The United States has worked with China to crush Japan, but China did not obey the United States even though it became an economic superpower.
Seems like Americans noticed recently that there is only Japan and the Pacific Ocean between the United States and China, and if Japan (as a war potential) is lost, the nuclear submarine of China will be deployed off the coast of California. That is why they elected anti-Chinese Trump as President.
A person like Trump will normally not be elected as President, but he was the only anti-Chinese candidate. That is why he was chosen. Other Republican candidates were all globalists, which mean Pro-Chinese. There was only Trump who was not a globalist.
It is the era that global companies control the United State, and it brings the society huge income gaps. Only 1% of the people win and other 99% of the people lose. In a globalized society, 1% of people gain profits and other 99% become slaves.
I think that the mass media in the United States is a part of 1% global companies, and 99% of the citizens are left behind. Japanese diplomatic critic could not predict the winning of Trump even though they were aware of such domestic circumstances of the United States. American mass media is also anti-Trump, and it just shares that information to Japan.
If you know such American domestic circumstances, you can expect that the war between Trump and Chinese will last long. Because global companies are afraid of American citizens' opposition, they will spend money on anti-Trump using the mass media. China has also spend money to the American mass media and been working on anti-Trump.
Thus, public opinion will criticize global companies unless they make factories in the United States. 99% of American citizens are supporting Trump, and the public opinion survey is completely manipulated. The State Department of the United States is the stronghold of Chinese spies, so Trump is forced to diplomat using the CIA.
In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit) is more like a Pro-Wrestling show, and President Trump is stirring American citizens up just like what he did for his own election. The opponent Kim Jong-Un is a villain in the show who does pretty good job as a show man, which reminds me of a Japanese villain wrestler called Great Togo who used to be famous. The current North Korea is more like the Empire of Japan.
Kim Jong-Un is also an actor on that show, so he was wearing the Mao suit in Singapore despite of the hot temperature just because it made the Pro-Wrestling show more interesting. President Trump and Kim Jong-Un were joking at the first meeting saying, "This could be a cool scene of a movie.h and yes, it was truly well made.
North Korea is a small country that only has the size of one of the prefectures in Japan, and the United States, which is considered as one of the strongest countries on Earth, is troubled by such country. It is because there is China, which is another strong country on Earth, back of North Korea.
The intention of Trump is to get North Korea on his side; however, both North Korea and South Korea have been survived by the tightrope diplomacy and act like a bat to do favor for bigger countries. China knows such things very well by now.
From the geographic perspective, Japan has the same situation, as it is also located in between bigger countries. However, from the geopolitical perspective, the strategic value cannot be compared. The Korean Peninsula is just a part of eastern end of the Eurasian continent, and it is just a buffer zone with Japan from Chinese point of view. Japan, on the other hand, is at a key position in the Pacific Ocean. If you hold down Japan then you can seize the sea area from Hawaii to the Indian Ocean.
China cannot invade the Pacific Ocean simply because Japan is there. That is why the United States wants Japan to be under their wings, as they know they can lose the Pacific Ocean if they let Japan go. Trump is trying to build an encirclement network against China, and he abandoned untrustworthy South Korea and is attempting to get North Korea on his side instead as North Korea completed nuclear missiles.
"Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" means that the American nuclear umbrella no longer works for Korea, but Trump clearly agreed to it. In the near future, our neighbor called South Korea may be gone, but it is totally their fault from their gbat diplomacyh.
The United States is a nation which change the color and taste as the president changes. I feel that the United States when Obama was President and when Trump is President are totally different. Depends on the political party of America, either Republican or Democratic, the foreign policy changes significantly, so Japan must pay close attention.
In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the United States would go inward, whether 9.11 happened or not, and it became clearer as they got President Trump.
Mr. Guchi-, who used to work in America for more than 30 years, has met Trump in a business scene. According to Mr. Guchi-, White people who behave outrageously and take racist actions in public got so noticeable nowadays, and as he said, there are lots of crimes or matters, which involve racism, happened. We can say the birth of President Obama, the first black president of the Untied States, has brought a sense of crisis or danger to white people, and they revealed their true nature. That was a motive force of the birth of President Trump.
Many Americans do not know where Japan is or even where New York City is. They are just delighted to see the show that their president had talks with Kim Jong-Un for the first time in history as an entertainment.
I want to know the real intention of American citizens whether they will keep supporting Trump as they are now.
No matter what agreement is made at 2018 North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit ) on June 12 or at any other occasion, North Korea will not hesitate to do a flip-flop and break promises as it is their unique speciality.
You can clearly see their diplomatic duplicity (balancing diplomacy they call and bat diplomacy we call) at this summit. But since the United State, China and Russia have strong military powers, they can easily apply military and economic sanctions when being betrayed. The issue is that because Japan does not have a military power, even if North Korea or South Korea betrays, there is no way to apply a military sanction against them.
That is why Japan is a ggreat neighborh for South and North Korea or even for the United States, China and Russia when they got some bills to pay. Japanese politicians will not hesitate to spend money for them as it comes from tax anyway and not from their own wallet. Also, it may bring some benefits or kickbacks to them. This is what is happening in the diplomacy between Japan and South/North Korea.
Then who is paying for the tax? Japanese citizens are, of course. If it helps the victims of the abduction come back, we are more than happy to pay; however, I am being skeptical about that at this summit. The abduction itself was done by Kim Jong-Il, a father of Kim Jong-Un and a former supreme leader of North Korea, and Kim Jong-Un was not directly involved. Therefore, I am afraid he may ask for economic aid in exchange.
In order to avoid that situation, the Prime Minister Abe was repeatedly asking the President Trump to bring up the abduction issue. Then Trump will take advantage of it. The Prime Minister Abe should think about a plan B in case there is no response from them as well as the warning that we will pay nothing for no outcome.
At this summit, it may be settled with no disagreement as the President Trump said. But Kim Jong-Un may do a flip-flop when he goes back to his country. Also, if he is with China or Russia, he will start flattering with them no matter what. This is what we call gbat diplomacyh. In the end, we can say North Korea has no power, and this summit is more like a professional wrestling show.
As it was written in Machiavellifs gThe Princeh, a small country in between stronger countries will be destroyed unless it clarifies which side it takes. Kim Jong-Un needs to choose China or the United States otherwise the two countries will destroy North Korea. Even South Korea has to support the United States whole-heartedly or the United States will destroy them.
From Machiavellifs perspective, North Korea must be on Chinafs side, yet due to the bat diplomacy, both China and the United States are being skeptical about South & North Korea. I do not think Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-Un have ever read gThe Princeh. As you can see from the history, gbat diplomacyh only leads the country to the end.
Especially, the Korean Peninsula is surrounded by powerful countries such as China, Russia and Japan, and also it is divided into two regions. Such small country in between stronger countries must obtain better diplomatic negotiation skills to survive; however, their diplomatic strategy only does a poor job in reality and kept miss judging on which country to take a side of.
Japan is a powerful country. It protected itself from the invasion of the Mongol empire, the ambitions of Spain and Portugal and the colonization of Britain and France. We lost in the fight with the United States and were occupied, yet we were not divided and only required to release the colonies.
In modern times, the most important matter is to choose either China or the United States to be with. North Korea and South Korea still continue to apply gbat diplomacyh in such time. Even for Japan, the decline of the United States and the emergence of China are one of the most crucial matters for not being like a Korean Peninsula.
In the news yesterday, it seemed like there was no stormy argument, but more like a friendly talk, so I guess Kim Jong-Un was flattering Trump. However, if Kim Jong-Un goes in front of Xi Jinping of China, he will start saying something different just like Moon Jae-in of South Korea. If there are no settlement between the United States and China, no decision will be made by the Korean Peninsula.
Japan was defeated in the Pacific War and did not really review the reasons and the consequences. We were defeated in the war by the United States not because of the strength of the army but the lack of capable personnel in the army and the government. Why did we have such incapable personnel as the leaders of the government and the army? I believe it is because of the severe seniority system, which might spoil personnel.
In a time when the world is stable, you may say that peoplefs ability could be improved by gaining more experiences. However, in an ever-changing and turbulent time, the past experience is useless, and only the person who anticipates the change of time can be a winner. In order to do so, people are required to have a prominent ability and foresight. On the other hand, it is the assumed that the world is never unstable in the seniority system.
In the age of the IT revolution and the AI revolution, conventional common sense does not work any longer, and people needs education and reformation that fit to the new generation. Reviewing was in need for that, but as you may see from current Japanese organization theory, things that must be changed have never changed, and people did not yet review the cause of the defeat in the Pacific War.
As it appears in the issues of Nihon Universityfs American Football Club and Ministry of Financefs manipulation of documents. When subordinates are ordered to do something by their superiors, even if it is illegal, it seems better to follow the order in the seniority system.
The Ministry of Finance has been proud of the esprit de corps for decades, but it is the organization of strong hierarchical culture just like the Japanese Army of the wartime. In addition to that, the Ministry of Finance has been considered as an elite clique, which controls current Japan. Therefore, it was publicly allowed to state some nonsense slogan such as increment of consumption tax and fiscal reconstruction.
In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I wrote against the increment of consumption tax and the fiscal reconstruction, but the Ministry of Finance just ignored all. However, with the inauguration of Abefs cabinet as well as his economic and monetary policies, Japan greatly changed the direction to the monetary easing. Yet, the deflationary constitution, which lasted for over twenty years, could not be just dismissed. I may say that it will take another twenty years to get out.
From the perspective of the exchange rate, the strong yen was blown away by Kuroda bazooka. Also, while the fiscal policy should blow off the budget deficit with active finances, because of the stupid and incapable financial bureaucrats, we are unable to do so. Even Abefs economic and monetary policies adopt the old financial policies; thus, if we do not carry out a greformh the Ministry of Finance, it seems impossible to strike an expansionary fiscal policy.
In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I pointed that the financial bureaucrats are incompetent. A series of scandals have also proved it. As the executives or superiors show their incompetence, the subordinates also follow them. The Ministry of Finance uses the young staff for persuading politicians to agree with the increment of consumption tax.
When I was a banker, I came to question the future of the bank, but at the time, we were able to make lots of money on lending them to major construction companies and real estate companies. Even though I appealed to my boss that such things would not last for a long time, the sales manager did listen at all. I once asked him to promote me to a fund manager, but all he said was gCollect more deposits.h
At that time, the bankers who collect deposits were considered good bankers, and it was not important to have the ability of foresight, so I quit the bank and got into the real estate industry. Then the Japanese government adopted an economic policy that tightened the control on the circulation of currency, which made the collapse of bubble economy in Japan. Because of the policy, the yen got really strong, and the export industry has suffered devastating blow, which caused relocation of factories to foreign countries.
We can clearly see how stupid the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan are in this twenty years. They only know what is written in textbook. It shows that they do not even understand the analogy of national finance to household economy and the fact that the governmentfs fiscal stimulus is critical to the fiscal reconstruction. Such a mechanism cannot be comprehended if there is no knowledge of microeconomic system, and I guess the financial bureaucrats may not be able to understand it.