stock diary



Just like the Cold War became the foundation of the framework of the post-war world, the New Cold War of the United States and China will become the core structure of the international relations for decades. The impact is immeasurable.


Tuesday, October 16, 2018

(My comment)

 

Regarding the speech of Vice President Pence, I introduced an article by Ms. Rui Matsukawa on July 7, as well as the article of J-CAST news on the 11th. However, the mass media such as Asahi Newspaper only mentioned a bit, and no TV program reported it widely despite the foreign diplomacy drastically changed in the United States.

 

Even Mr. Sakai Tanaka's blog, which is famous as a diplomatic blog, on October 11, said, "Hayley's resignation has been confirmed, and the rumors of Mattis's resignation have also appeared many times. The remaining responsible officials for national security of the Trump regime are the Secretary of State Bolton and Pompeo, who are Neoconservative (= hidden Polycentrism), and Vice President Pence who declared to start cold war with China to be liked by Trump. In the future, the Trump regime will take an extreme "hegemon abandonment / hidden Polycentrism strategy to make China, Russia, Iran, India hate American."

 

Probably, he thinks that friends of the funny President made an anti-Chinese speech. But this is wrong. There are serious conflicts within American over the diplomacy with China, and many executives of the government are replaced. It seems like China's diplomatic work has penetrated the United States so deeply, and the pro-Chinese party has strong power in the US diplomacy including Kissinger.

 

Something like this is impossible unless it is by a person like Trump. It seems like it took two years to completely eliminate pro-Chinese within the administration. Ambassador Haley will resign as well as Defense Secretary Mathis in the near future. Certainly in short term, it will be better for the United States to make a business with China, and China will also make a profit.


Furthermore, Americans believed that if China becomes economically rich, it will be a free and democratic country, which will end up with further profits in the huge market of 1.3 billion people. Obviously, Americans do not know anything about China and Chinese people. Chinese are sociable, hardworking and generous, so they can go along with Americans. However, due to their strong self-assertion and arrogance, it was predicted that a big fight would happen.

There are many different opinions in the United States, and many parties are fighting for the leadership over American diplomacy. Nixon changed the diplomatic policy with China dramatically, but China also had to be a friend with the United States due to a worsening relationship with the Soviet Union. Although Reagan administration led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, if the United States and China become friends, they could even collapse the Soviet Union.

 

Deng Xiaoping also wanted investment and technology from the United States. He knew that they couldnft grow with their own power after Mao Zedong. Vice President Pence also clearly said, "Over the past 17 years, China's GDP has grown nine times and has become the second largest economy in the world. The majority of this success was brought by the investment of the United States.h

 

In other words, China's economic development was brought by investment of the United States and Japan, and many industrial technologies were provided. China was able to gain a great profit merely by providing factory lands and workers. Most were established as a joint venture, and they could get knowledge about how to run business as foreign companies.


This growth modeled post-war Japan. Even South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have grown economically and became politically stable democratic countries. That is also why the United States thought the economical growth of China would make the country modern, free and democratic.


However, China let the United States down. Even though China became the second largest economic power in the world, the democratization will not proceed and the Communist party became strengthened. Pence said,  "China is investing tons of money into war expenditure, which is almost equal to the total war expenditure of the rest of Asian countries in order to gain the power to threaten American military superiority of land, sea, air, and space. The aim of China is to expel the United States from the western Pacific and to prevent the United States from receiving assistance from allies.

 

Ironically, China strengthened domestic surveillance to monitor the Internet by using American technology and reinforced the "Great Firewall (Internet censorship)". Thus, there is no freedom of speech and democratization. Religious oppression also continues, but the communist regime is rather strengthened.

 

Vice President Pence said, "The Communist party gives compensation to US companies, movie companies, universities, think tanks, scholars, journalists, rural, state, federal officials and take control of them.h I think it is the same in Japan; the domination is growing in various fields as well.

 




There is no need to denigrate the status of own language according to the change of hegemonic language of at most 100 years. In the long term, it damages the richness of our society.


Tuesday, October 9, 2018

(My comment)

 

In modern Japanese school education, English education is overly demanded, but in my opinion, there is no need to teach English from elementary school. How come Japanese people who cannot write papers in Japanese language will be able to write papers in English language? There are many small countries where higher education is only available in English, but Japan is not a small country.


Even in Korea and Taiwan, education is frequently done in English in universities, and even in large cultural countries like Germany and France, it is common to have scientific subjects in English. Also, if people cannot understand English, they cannot become a doctor. But even European people in the same cultural area can only understand approximately 80% when reading English papers.

 

Only native English speakers can understand 100% of English papers. Since the culture of the country is deeply related to the papers of the literature, there are some parts that cannot be understood completely. For example, even if you translate Japanese haiku and Tanka into English, it is impossible to understand perfectly.

There is no perfect language or perpetual universal language, but it is natural that the language of the hegemon country is most likely to be spread widely. Since the United States reigns as a hegemon country now, English is used as an official language in many countries. However, it was about 70 years ago that English spread as an official language in the world, and French and German were also widely used as official languages before the Great War.

 

If China becomes the hegemon country, will Chinese language become the official language of the world? For instance, how much can we write IT terms in Chinese? Can we use Chinese language for financial terms? If we use Japanese language, there is no problem because we can use katakana for both IT and financial terms. There is no need for translation, and all we need is to write words according to the pronunciation.

 

The reason why the software industry is weak in Japan is because computer languages are based on English, and that is the reason why the United States dominates the IT industry. Why canft we make computer languages based on Japanese then?


In future, AI will be able to automatically translate any language when we use Facebook or Google Chrome, but it is still incomplete or unnatural at this moment. We can somehow understand the Japanese sentences, which is auto-translated from English. I guess an English sentence, which is auto-translated from Japanese, is the same situation.

 

"Stock diary" also has some articles posted in English, but I am sure that it would be impossible to have 100% content understood. In order to use AI for perfect translation of the contents, it is necessary to let AI memorize enormous amount of data.

 

In AI Shogi or Go (Japanese board games), AI is able to beat human by choosing the optimal solution out of huge amount of data, so I am certain that perfect translation will be possible in the future. Thus, it is important to master a perfect mother tongue rather than to learn foreign languages, and there is a need to advance the Japanese itself to the next stage.

In many countries, higher education can only be available in English, but translation cannot be done into the native language unless a corresponding translation word is available. Therefore, in some of the Asian and African countries, English becomes the official language and a gap between people who can understand English and people who cannot understand English will occur. That will lead to conflicts between elite classes and non-elite classes.

 

In Japan, many elite people cannot understand English because there are few English classes at university. But in other Asian countries, if students do not understand English, they simply cannot understand the class.

Even if people can use English in daily conversations, if they cannot understand academic terms, they cannot catch up with advanced countries forever.


Recently, It became clear that there is a limit for American people to understand Chinese because Majority of European and American cannot read Kanji. Even Chinese people cannot read ancient Chinese literatures, but I find it strange that Japanese people can understand them even though Chinese has no grammar.

 

Thus, the meaning will depend on person who reads. There are only few Japanese who truly understand this. If Westerners want to understand China, they must go through Japanese literature.  The reason why China sends a large amount of international students abroad is because it is impossible to do advanced research without English. It also affects The Nobel Prize.



"Japan MSDF submarine conducted training assuming a battle in the South China Sea" (Chosun Ilbo), "MSDF submarines conducted confidential training in front of China" (JoongAng Ilbo), reported with surprise.


Monday, September 24, 2018

(My comment)

 

Letfs talk about Japanese submarine today. It is about Japan MSDF submarine was conducting training in the South China Sea. It seems like Chinese authorities have not noticed that. On the other hand, Japan detected Chinese submarines near the Senkaku Islands. Since it is crucial for submarines not to be detected, their detection capability is a key.

The Maritime Self - Defense Force has been carrying out trainings in the South China Sea since 15 years ago. Apparently, Chinese has never detected that. Conversely, Chinese submarines are being detected several times near Japan. I do not understand why MSDF announced in public that they had trainings in the South China Sea this time.

 

It is quite ridiculous that China missed Japanese submarines for 15 years in the South China Sea where they insist as their own territory. Once China tried to show off the fake aircraft carrier, and now I wonder how strong the Chinese Navy is. I also heard that many carrier planes have already crashed, so I even doubt the reliability of fighter aircraft.

 

The Chinese economy has developed while copying foreign skills. However, speaking about military technology, even Russia is not willing to share, so the jet engines are still not reliable. Military technology has to be stolen from others, but China was trying to acquire technology by buying private companies in Germany.

Japan also offered technology to China and sometimes being copied by China, but it will only bring troubles if China imitates the military technology. The trade war between the United States and China is also a battle of communication technology, but the United States has been quite open to China to provide technology and capital. They have also been allowing China to imitate what they have.

China is desperate to mobilize hackers and steal US military technology. At the same time, a large numbers of spies are also infiltrating into the munitions industry. Also, China is sending a huge amount of students to foreign universities to acquire skills. Seems like China does not have enough ability to develop with their own power.

 

China has already become the second largest economic power in the world and invested a large amount of money into military technology development. They put special emphasis on the military technology development of the universe, and the United States take it very seriously; however, the tolerant policy towards China during the Obama administration was hard to understand for me.

During the Clinton administration, ICBM's technology about MIRV was also offered to China, but it would not be possible to capture former president Clinton as a spy. Everyone knows that Clinton and his wife got a lot of bribes from China, but the United States has pretended to be unaware of it.


China is also sending a lot of spies to the Japanese Self Defense Force. For example, there are over 800 Chinese wives among the wives of SDF personnel. There was one Chinese wife who even tried to steal the data of Aegis. China should have known through the spy about the training of MSDF submarines in the South China Sea. Yet, China could not detect Japanese submarines.

 

Recently, normal types of diesel submarines are very advanced and can run under water for about a week. It is difficult to detect because it only rise once in a while and can store power by snorkeling. Since the US nuclear submarines cannot stop running its nuclear reactors, they are easy to be detected by sound.

That is why the United States wants normal types of submarines, but the US has not made them for several decades. Once Australia was trying to buy Japanese submarines, but it was crushed by China. Instead, France got a contract. I wonder if it is possible for them to make a high performance submarine.


Submarines production companies in Japan were not very enthusiastic about export. If they exported the technology to Australia, there is a risk of getting them through to China. Australia has already been hijacked by China and is full of Chinese immigrants; thus, the statues of comfort women were also built.

Regular types of submarines will be able to dive for a long time due to the development of technology such as batteries and will be able to deliver the same performance as nuclear submarines. The cost is much cheaper than the nuclear submarine. In order to detect such submarines, it is necessary to dispatch a large amount of anti-submarine patrol aircraft and destroyers, but it is difficult for China to equip them all.

 




The supporters of reflation thought if the Bank of Japan buys government bonds, it will increase the base money, lower it to zero interest rate, and cash will increase in the banking system, so the money supply would also increase. It was absolutely wrong.


Wednesday September 12, 2018

(My comment)

 

The financial problem in Japan is that cash will only be accumulated in banks even if monetary easing, and will not lead to an increase in credit. Clearly speaking, banks are not going to increase loans quite easily, so the effect of monetary easing will not be effective; but if they start making fancy loans like the Suruga Bank, that will be another story.


With the bubble burst in Japan, banks tremendously suffered and were consolidated, and because of that, banks become cautious about lending and do not increase loans. The private companies do not have a good investment destination, so they do not feel like debt. There are many people who are not willing to loan money from banks due to retraction of credit or credit crunch.


If economic activity is sluggish like this, the demand for funds will also decrease. In such a situation, the government must take the initiative to invest in using money, but the incompetent finance minister has reduced public works projects by raising taxes.

 

I do not know what the Treasury Department or BOJ bureaucrats are thinking. If they issue more government bonds, and the depreciation of yen happens or the interest rate rises, I understand. But it is not the case. They are suffering from the yen appreciation and the zero interest rates. Perhaps the Ministry of Finance and the BOJ do not know the basic principle of finance.


Even if they issue 1000 trillion yen in government bonds, it is theoretically impossible to suffer with yen appreciation or zero interest rates. Is it an urge from the market to issue more government bonds? In the world economy, people are suffering from the shortage of trustworthy currency. In reality, the dollar is the world currency, and there are many countries where the dollar is more acceptable than their own currency.


With the 2008 financial crisis, the United States issued approximately 440 trillion dollars and surrendered the crisis, but that dollar has not yet been collected. If they do not collect it to a certain extent and when financial crisis happens again, they cannot issue a large amount of dollars. If they issue a large amount, the dollar will collapse and the interest rate will rise.

 

After the Global Financial Crisis, the yen rose steadily to the 70-yen level because many people purchased yen. After that, Kuroda became the Governor of BOJ, Japan applied monetary easing and settled down to the 110-yen level. Even from that, it is clear that Japanese yen supports the dollar.

The rise in stock prices in the United States will not stop. However, although Amazon and Apple have a market capitalization of $ 1 trillion, $4.4 trillion are looking for its destinations. If they sell MBS and government bonds, which FRB has bought, the bonds will collapse and interest rates will rise sharply. The next financial crisis will probably due to the collapse of NY shares.


The market capitalization of Amazon and Apple's $ 1 trillion is the symbol, and it was created by the dollar scattered on the market. If they issue a large amount of dollars at the time then the dollar will crash and the interest rate could rise suddenly. Even the euro had a dangerous period for a while, but it was saved by emergency loans from Japan.

 

If another financial crisis or stock price crash happens again in the United States, they have to issue a large amount of the dollar once again. Japan will most likely buy a yen-denominated US bond because if it is dollar-denominated US bonds, the value will drop as the dollar collapses.

 



Former US Deputy Secretary of State Armitage said the atmosphere of Japan is changing nowadays, and the Japanese government is to start thinking that the United States will no longer reliable.


Monday, September 3, 2018

(My comment)

 

In my "stock diary", I have appealed Japan's self-defense and nuclear armament, but self-defense is not about Japan's sole defense. We can create the collective defense system like NATO of the Far East version from 2% of GDP. The defense budget will increase from 5 trillion yen to 10 trillion yen, but even that alone will be a considerable defense force.

Regarding nuclear weapons, if the US troops withdraw from Japan, it will be quite a real problem because it is surrounded by nuclear-armed countries such as China, North Korea and Russia. Without nuclear weapons, Japan will be under the influence of China and Russia. Compared to that, the United States will prefer Japan having nuclear weapons.

 

In order to rule the Pacific, it is necessary to rule Japan from geopolitical point of view. It is even difficult for China and Russia to go out to the Pacific unless dominating Japan. There are sensors for submarines set on the sea bottom of Japan's strait. Even if it is a long distance bomber, it will be caught by Japanese fighters when heading to the Pacific Ocean.

Therefore, it is difficult for the US troops to withdraw from Japan. Even if there is a country called Japan, it is actually ruled by the United States. There was still a movement of independence at the time of the 1960s, but Constitutional Education was thoroughly carried out at schools, and people were brainwashed.

 

Even for Japanese politicians and bureaucrats, if they give all the freedom of diplomacy and defense to the United States, they can still hold the power of the US forces in Japan. It is not the Japanese government that holds the real power of Japan, but the US forces in Japan. If stupid politicians come out appealing for the independence, they will be obliterated instantly.

The US military was against the revision of the Constitution as it means a denial of the US militaryfs presence in Japan. That is why we have done Constitutional Education. Despite the fact that the constitutional amendment is a party policy, the Liberal Democratic Party has not taken any action. The U.S. government does not say anything in public, but behind, it restrains the movement of independence.

 

For the United States, the protest movement of the left wing is nothing to afraid of, but the protest movement of conservative is something America fears. It is the conservative to assert Japan's self-defense. Pro-America Conservative is logically contradicted and not what they originally are. Liberal Democratic Party is a middle-political party, and there is no conservative party. When the Hatoyama administration of the Democratic Party was born, there were some movements to kick out the US forces in Japan, but it was crushed at once.

 

There are opinions in the United States about how to deal with Japan. Some says neutralize Japan, other says Japan should be allowed to arm nuclear weapons. However, the State Department of the United States is a stronghold of the Chinese fellowship, and they are publically against the visit of the Prime Minister to Yasukuni Shrine. China and Korea are also opposed to the visit of the Prime Minister to Yasukuni Shrine because that is what the United States do as you can see from the movement of Asahi News Paper.

 

Japan did participate in neither the Korean War nor the Vietnam War by following the Peace Constitution. Instead, Korean troops did. That implies how much America is afraid of Japan to rearmed, and we should not believe what America says in public. Until now, we have been able to avoid becoming a part of American forces because of the Peace Constitution. American politicians who insist taking advantage of the US-Japan Security Treaty at no cost are nothing but ignorant.

 



gParticipation from back side" Hitler ignored every provocation of Roosevelt.

The United States searched for "the substitution of Hitler in Orient" (means a villain in historical view of the victorious country)

 

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

(My comment)

 

In my "stock diary", I wrote that the Greater East Asia War has not ended as speech battle and ideological warfare remain. The parties to the war have died and are no longer there, but the remaining battle is still going on. Many Japanese stopped thinking about the defeat like "It can not be helped because we lost".

 

From the perspectives of European countries, the country will die if it had been dispirited by one or two defeat of battle. If the nation wages war, there are times they win or sometimes they lose. If they defeated, they have to figure out why, but little research has been done on that. Historians and military experts tend to avoid it.

 

In conclusion, it is because it is contrary to the Tokyo trial historical view. The reason why Tamogami, Chief of Staff Air Self Defense Force was dismissed from the Aso cabinet was because he criticized the Tokyo trial historical view. The generation of Prime Minister Aso, Prime Minister Koizumi and Prime Minister Fukuda were planted the Tokyo trial historical view after the war. However, now we are able to know the history via online, I think that Japan can be said that it has won the war.

 

We can say that Japan won the Greater East Asia War because we achieved the major objective of "liberation of Asia", which was denied by postwar education. War cannot be defined its victory or defeat by the magnitude of the damage. Especially in the liberation war caused by racial discrimination and colonial liberation war, even if the United States or the United Kingdom won the battle victoriously, their colonies continued to be independent after the war. The United States, which was also a nation with racial discrimination, recognized the human right of black people by the law in the 1960s.

 

There was no black naval officer in the US Army even during the Greater East Asian War, and black officers were also rare in the Army. It is because American white soldiers hated being led by black officers. Even now, white policemen shoot or strangle black people in the United States; however, white policemen are not prosecuted.

 

The Greater East Asia War is a battle between Japan, which complained of racial discrimination, and the racist country America, and Japan has lost the war but the objective of the war was achieved. The United States was able to use the atomic bombs to Japan because American white people thought colored race as a monkey.

 

America has opened Pandora 's box called "race" by waging war with Japan. As a result, Britain and France lost a lot of colonies and white superiorism lost its base. In France, terrorist incidents are occurring, but the criminals were blacks and Arabs who have been discriminated even though they were France-born French. In other words, racial discrimination has not disappeared in these countries, and the Greater East Asia War is still going on.

 

The United States dislike Japanese prime minister to visit the Yasukuni Shrine because they do not want Japanese people to notice that the Greater East Asia War was a holy war. Indeed, the United States won the Greater East Asia War, but it suffered from rebellions of black people, and whites will become a minority in the next 20 years. It seems that American blacks recognized the Greater East Asia War as a black liberation war.

 

(My comment) addition

 

I bought two books in a Book-Off store, gFreedom Betrayed" written by President Hoover and gFDR: The Other Side Of The Coin ? How We Were Tricked into World War IIh written by Hamilton Fish. I bought a book originally priced 2700 yen for 1960 yen. I guess it was too expensive to sell in the bookstore and was sold to Book-Off.

 

I also read a book "Prejudice Japanese-Americans: Symbol of Racial Intolerance " written by Carey McWilliams and translated by Mr. Watanabe. It was written in 1994 and criticized the creation of Japanese concentration camp. I have bought such books at secondhand bookstores, but Japanese people do not buy or read such history books.

 

I wish to introduce it on a blog, but I cannot easily pick up the historical problem because the international situation fluctuates drastically. Indeed such a "historic war" must be disseminated to the world in English, but Japanese do not want to claim such self-assertion and do not want to discuss it.

 

I think that there are quite a few Japanese in the United States, but there are only few people who know about the modern history of Japan and the United States. What they know is the historical view taught at school. That is why the State Department of the United States criticizes Japan when Japanese prime minister visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. This will make Japan a war criminal nation forever. War is a foolish thing, but Japan is not the only bad. It is also Americafs fault.

 




As Turkish lira fell to the level which European and Turkish banks may consider as a risk factor, it became a concern in the global financial markets.

 

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

 

(My comment)

 

Turkish lira is falling dramatically, and this is an economic crisis for emerging countries,
 and it happened because the economic situation in emerging countries such as BRICS are getting dangerous. 
Turkey is also one of the emerging countries, and it has gathered investment from Europe. In other words, 
if the Turkish economy goes wrong, it will also have some impacts over European banks that have invested.

 

Emerging economies have undergone economic development through capital investment from the United States and Europe. However, emerging countries often have political unrest, and many of these countries are not mature as democracies. Therefore, even if the economy is going well, confusion of the political diplomacy can be the trouble. If it is in a mature democratic country, even though the political diplomacy failed, the change of government will occur. However, in emerging countries, it is difficult.

 

The US-China trade war is happening, but China cannot just replace Xi Jinping easily. Even in Turkey, relations between the United States and Erdogan are deteriorating in the same way, but they cannot easily replace President Erdogan. In Japan, the relations with the United States went worse, the prime minister has been replaced like every year. It is easy to replace the prime minister within a democratic system if the government fails in Japan.

 

In emerging countries, it is difficult to change the president or prime minister, and it easily becomes authoritarian dictatorship, as Erdogan and Xi Jinping. The currencies of Brazil and Argentina have also plummeted, and it seems difficult to rebuild their economic situations. Originally the trend of investment to BRICS was led by Goldman Sachs, and it was also the national policy of the United States.

 

It is the basic strategy of the United States to advance democratization in emerging countries while letting them economically grow and expanding the market.

It is obvious from the color revolution in Central Asian countries and the Jasmine Revolution in North African countries. Such aggressive way of the United States often offend others. There are some coups in Turkey, but American pastor was the one actually pulling strings behind the scenes.

 

These BRICS strategies are from self-righteousness of the United States. It is appreciated to make economic growth, but internal interference such as demanding democratization provokes opposition. The trade war between the United States and China is part of that. While China has grown economically and became the second largest economic power in the world, the democratization did not proceed, that is why President Trump lost his temper.


However, emerging countries also have circumstances of the nations. In the countries like BRICS, politics does not work well within the democratic politics in reality. Even if it seems like democracy, but it truly applies a dictatorship system, and it becomes difficult to replace the top even if they fail. I think there is a cultural difference between the continental state and the maritime state, and it may be the cause.

 

If it is a maritime country, the imcompetence of the captain cause the shipwreck; thus, it will work with democratic logic. However, if there is no strong authoritarian dictatorship in continental countries, the country will be invaded by other countries. Turkey is also a part of the continent and is required to have a powerful national system with authoritarian dictatorship in order not to be invaded by neighboring countries.

 

Because emerging countries borrow tons of money in foreign currencies such as US dollar, their debts are swelling due to the decline in their currencies. Therefore, Turkish wealthy people have sold Turkish lira and are replacing them with US dollars and Euros. Gold are also falling. In addition to that, Trump raised the tariffs on Turkish iron and aluminum as well. The raising the interest rate of US dollar will force emerging countries into a difficult situation.

 




Mr. Musha said, "Strong dollar is the hegemony of the United States. There are many positive aspects and few negative aspects to strengthen the economic base that supports it. "


Tuesday, August 7, 2018

 

(My comment)

 

Even though Trump keeps being criticized by the mass media for Russian scandal and his radical diplomatic style, the citizens still support him. Also, there are not many actions such as impeachment from parliament because the economic situation is good. Stock prices are hitting high, the growth rate of GDP is over 4% and the unemployment rate is also the lowest level. 

 

The Abe administration has been in existence for a long time because the economic recovery continues. No matter how much the opposition party attacks, the Liberal Democratic Party wins in elections. If the economy is being good, the administration will last long, and if the economy becomes bad, the prime minister will be replaced every year like the 1990s.

 

Because Trump regime was considered not to last long, the staff of the administration was not quite stable, but since it has devised a completely different policy, it seems hard to align government staff. I am not sure whether Republicans of the ruling Legislative party will support Trump or not, and I do not yet know the flow of the mid-term election.

 

There were diplomatic critics who said that Trump 's policy toward China and North Korea are for the mid-term election, but there seems to be a bigger shift in policy. Since Japanese media reports news from what American media says, it is hard to see the true movement inside the United States. It seems like the United States is doing good from the economic perspective, and China will be defeated in the trade war with the United States.


Although Mr. Sakai Tanaka's online magazine says the collapse of the United States is inevitable, Mr. Musha has totally opposite view. Which one is correct?  Mr. Tanaka wrote that the hegemony of the United States will be taken by China and will be lost, and he said that BRICS such as China would lead the world.

 

I believe that Mr. Musha is right. Mr. Musha also said that the Trump regime is more like imperialist, not an isolationist, a protectionist or a discriminator. Trump is clearly taking the position of strengthening military capabilities to be against China, and it made the image for President Trump changed considerably.


China misread the changes of the foreign policy of the United States, and recently China is being troubled by the trade war with the United States. Xi Jinping is being fairly quiet, and China probably will face to its crucial moment soon.

 

Mr. Musha said that the United States would never allow China to get stronger and stronger, and become a hegemon country alongside the United States. Thus, "How to seal China" is the top priority of them. It is pretty obvious when you see the ongoing trade war and the demolition of "Made in China 2025". China probably did not know what would happen if they made America angry.

 

Japan was also beaten up when it was overly excited and saying "Japan As Number One". Before wartime, Japan was thinking that if it strengthened the military power, the United States would become quiet, but Japan was actually beaten up by the Greater East Asia War. I am wondering how China will come back in the future, but I think China is learning very well from what happened to Japan.

 

President Trump does not know whether the high dollar rate is good or the low dollar rate is good, but Mr. Musha said, "Strong dollar is the hegemony of the United States. There are many positive aspects and few negative aspects to strengthen the economic base that supports it.". It is exactly reminiscent of the era of Reagan administration. President Trump may have an intention to become like Reagan.

 



When US and European free trade agreements are consolidated in addition to the Japan-Europe EPA, a massive market that occupied more than 60% of the world's GDP will be formed. If this really happens, China will be able to do nothing.  


Monday, July 30, 2018 (My comment)

 

Recently, President Trump 's economy and diplomacy seem annoying. It is all because China pissed America off. President Obama was on his "strategic patience" diplomacy, but President Trump 's diplomacy is totally opposite. 

 

President Obama basically let China do whatever they want, and as a result, China thought they have a right to act like that. American citizens were frustrated against such an attitude of China, and that is why Trump was elected because he was the only one who insisted anti-global economy.

 

The global enterprises in the United States are heavily relying on China so that they cannot be tough on China. Until now, the United States has had a strategic partnership with China, but China has not responded to America's expectations while enjoying its benefits. Instead of Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping came to have a hopeless dream called world domination.

 

Being a world hegemony state while maintaining the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party is a nightmare for the United States, and it will not been accepted in any manner. The fact that an irregular born of President Trump was unexpected for many diplomatic experts. However, if they could see the enthusiasm of the presidential campaign, it was pretty obvious that American citizen turned to the support Trump.

 

Trumpfs diplomacy is led by the CIA, and the Department of State has been ignored by Trump as it had not yet decided the vice minister but having a dirty relationship with China. Many members of the Department of State resigned and became intermediaries for Chinese businesses or became a staff of Pro-China think tanks.

 

When Obama was President, his cabinet was full of Pro-China politicians, and Susan Rice was a promoter of G2 (The Group of Two) and anti-Japanese. Regarding this, my gstock diaryh proposed a strategy for Japan to have even stronger relationship with China than the United States, which could have caused the United States so much trouble. That is why America was trying so hard to separate Japan from China and Korea by bringing up the history issues.

 

The diplomacy of the United States has made a 180-degree turn, and a trade war has begun between the United States and China. Up until now, the maneuvering of China has controlled the president and the government, but it no longer works for Trump. Also, secretaries who had deep connection with China have been fired one after another. As I mentioned, the vice-minister of the Department of States is not even decided.

 

Even though the leading mass media and the Wall Street are criticizing Trump, it seems that the flow of public opinion cannot be changed. Furthermore, the United States and the European Union agreed to refrain from introducing new tariffs, and EU and Japan signed EPA. As you can see, the anti-China network is slowly being formed among Japan, the United States and Europe. There is also a possibility that US and UK will join the TPP as well.

 

China is originally a country of Chinese thought, there are no equal ally countries, only subordinate countries. As a dictatorship run by a single communist party, there is no common sense existing. They arbitrarily reclaim reefs in the South China Sea and build a military base. They insist Japan that both Senkaku and Okinawa belong to China. The United States may feel a sense of crisis.

It was the issue of AIIB accession that made it decisive, and America's isolation became even clearer. In response to this, Japanese media also made a fuss about "If we do not join AIIB, we will missed the bus.h. Any international financial institution cannot be established without dollar and yen of the United States and Japan. The real G2 is the currency system controlled by Japan and the United States.

 




When the real "Trade War (tariff raising battle)" begins between the United States and China, there is concern that currencies and stock prices of developing countries that are closely related to China will further decline.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

 

(My comment)

 

As I wrote many times in my "stock diary", the trade war between the United States and China will become a long-standing "war" as it went into full swing. The United States crushed the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and then attacked Japan and crushed Japan. When Japanese yen was picked up to the 70-yen range, the export industry in Japan chased great damage.

Japan did not collapse like the Soviet Union, but it has completely lost its momentum. Since Japan is a colony of the United States after all, America noticed that there is no meaning to crush its own colony. In my "stock diary", I have repeatedly asked, "Does Japan's weakening bring any benefit to the United States?"

On the other hand, "stock diary" has proposed a strategy called "Japan is playing dead" against the United States. Japan took a strategy to quietly disappear from the front of the United States by following the principle of nonresistance. We did not do things like sanctions against sanctions like China, but chose the path of weakening themselves.

Even in the Greater East Asia War, Japan only wished to maintain the nation, and surrendered unconditionally. It also called the "second defeat war" in the 1990s, and MacArthur 's cone pipe was sent to the Secretary of the Treasury, Summers, who crushed Japan. I do not know whether Americans are stupid or not, but Japan has gone helpless.

After Japan lost in the Greater East Asia War and became helpless, the United States fought in the Korean War and brought tens of thousands of American soldiers to death. This is a proof that the US government is stupid and repeating stupid things in the Vietnam War. America will have to pay the price if they make Japan disabled.

Trump is repeating it again now. I do not mean that Trump is stupid, but he would have to face a direct war with China if he makes Japan disabled. The United States has worked with China to crush Japan, but China did not obey the United States even though it became an economic superpower.

Seems like Americans noticed recently that there is only Japan and the Pacific Ocean between the United States and China, and if Japan (as a war potential) is lost, the nuclear submarine of China will be deployed off the coast of California. That is why they elected anti-Chinese Trump as President.

A person like Trump will normally not be elected as President, but he was the only anti-Chinese candidate. That is why he was chosen. Other Republican candidates were all globalists, which mean Pro-Chinese. There was only Trump who was not a globalist.

It is the era that global companies control the United State, and it brings the society huge income gaps. Only 1% of the people win and other 99% of the people lose. In a globalized society, 1% of people gain profits and other 99% become slaves.

I think that the mass media in the United States is a part of 1% global companies, and 99% of the citizens are left behind. Japanese diplomatic critic could not predict the winning of Trump even though they were aware of such domestic circumstances of the United States. American mass media is also anti-Trump, and it just shares that information to Japan.

If you know such American domestic circumstances, you can expect that the war between Trump and Chinese will last long. Because global companies are afraid of American citizens' opposition, they will spend money on anti-Trump using the mass media. China has also spend money to the American mass media and been working on anti-Trump.

Thus, public opinion will criticize global companies unless they make factories in the United States. 99% of American citizens are supporting Trump, and the public opinion survey is completely manipulated. The State Department of the United States is the stronghold of Chinese spies, so Trump is forced to diplomat using the CIA.



Along with the decrease in the dollar circulating within the Uited States, the decline in US national bonds, the collapse of stocks and corporate debentures, extraordinary high interest rates, drastic increase in corporate bankruptcies happen, and it will lead to new financial crises.

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

(My comment)

At the World Cup 2018, Japan ended with the last 16, which was a surprise for me as I had expected them to lose all matches. I did not expect much, but miraculously they advanced to the last 16. Actually, I was more interested in the reaction of the audience than the game itself. I think the color of blue is disadvantageous because it is not really a noticeable color. Colors like red or white can get more attention easily.

The United States missed the World Cup, Germany was defeated at the group stage, and Japan lost the match at the round-of-16. Football is a sport of poor countries. The United States, Germany and Japan are host countries for foreign workers, and they let foreign workers do jobs that require physical strength.

In the United States, Trump began to restrict foreign workers and is trying to bring back factories that have gone overseas. The United States aimed for a financial nation once; however, they changed their mind, as the most of American investment banks were about to collapse when the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy occurred. The lesson is that manufacturing is necessary as an industry that supports a country.

When the United States was aiming for a financial nation, the export commodity was a piece of paper called a dollar or a piece of paper called a US natioanl bond. Every country in the world has exported items and saved dollars and bought US natioanl bond. The Untied States could not stop laughing because a piece of paper somehow turn into an automobile or daily commodities.

Then They began to disregard the manufacturing industry, and factories moved from the United States to Mexico or China. American companies have made tremendous profits by importing products produced in ultra low-wage countries to the United States. The financial industry in the United States collected more dollars by releasing out of paper, a fund that securitizes receivables, to the world. That led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

This is possible because US dollar is a key currency, and it has been used as a link to oil. Such a system is a free trade system, and since US dollar is used as a means of settlement, the world economy has been active by accumulating dollars.

Because Japanese Yen is strong now, I think it is good to disperse a piece of paper called Japanese Yen and become a major importing nation; however, they would not do that as Japanese people tend to dislike the trade deficit.

The economic policy of the Trump regime is to raise tariffs, reduce imports as well as reduce trade deficit, and it is the opposite of the free trade system. If tariffs are imposed on imported items, American citizens will have no choice but to buy these items despite the cost. If 25% tariff is applied on automobiles, the automobile industry in Japan will be in trouble.

If the free trade system collapses, will the United States win? I doubt so. It will simply ruin themselves. There will be no way to use US dollar, US national bonds will not be sold, and the interest rate will rise. If people think that US dollar will go cheap, they will sell US dollar and Japanese Yen will be bought.

Japan, China and Russia are beginning to sell US national bonds, and the interest rates in the United States are rising. In the trump regime, the economy seems to be good with major tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, but if they keep doing this, the financial crisis like the collapse of Lehman Brothers could happen again. If the Unites States get high interest rates, developping countries that borrow a large amount of US dollar will be in a huge trouble, and China will be the most dangerous one.

Trumpfs trade policy could destroy US dollarfs key currency system, and world will be confused by the decline of US dollar and the rise in interest rates. If interest rates rise, there is a possibility that companies that were saved by low interest rates could be crushed. Even if the interest rate rises and the economy gets worse, monetary easing can not be done, and a massive crash of stock will occur.




Capital inflows to China are suppressed by the expansion of interest differential between the United States. On the contrary, A notable foreign exchange outflow may occur, and the consequence will be the sharp decline of RMB.

June 25th 2018 (Mon)

(My comment)

Previously, I wrote that President Trumpfs diplomacy with North Korea is a failure, but it was at least successful in making North Korea calm. North Korea cannot exist without China, so if the United States get China on their side, North Korea has no choice but to show a white flag. The aim of Trump is only China, and North Korea is just a part of it.

The United States when President was Obama, applied diplomacy with strategic patience and committed to do nothing to China no matter what China does. There are various forces involved in the United States, and from the 1990fs to the present, the influence of pro-Chinese got stronger. Thus, the United States let China do whatever they want in the South China Sea, and it has brought irrevocable situations.

Against such situations, anti-Chinese factions in the United States also revived their forces, leading to the birth of President Trump. Even China could not expect that Trump would be elected President, so they did not maneuver from behind with money. President Bush was anti-Chinese in the early days, but eventually he took the side of China.

China and the United States have formulated a strategic partnership, and Japan found itself in a pincer attack by the United States and China. As I wrote the other day, while the United States let a substantial devaluation of RMB happen, Japanese yen was rushed up to the 70 yen level. While printing more and more dollar bills and spreading it to the world, the United States made a huge change from the 120 yen level to the 70 yen level.

I also wrote about it on June 18, but the driving force of China's great development was in the devaluation of RMB. That is why China has become the gworldfs factoryh, and the Chinese economy has grown rapidly and became one of the strongest countries, overtaking Japan. Until there, it was what the United States expected, but become the era of Xi Jinping, China began to walk the road of military superpower.

America hoped that China would join the World Trade Organization (WTO) and become an ordinary country to protect the international rules; however, China did not abide by the international rules nor did it stop acts of infringement of intellectual property rights. Therefore, Trump decided to apply economic sanction on steel and aluminum, including China. The retaliatory battle between the United States and China has also begun there.

Mr. Katsumata said in his article, "Japan and EU (European Union) both recognize the issue of China stealing technology. Therefore, together with the United States, the three sides will attempt to appeal to WTO (World Trade Organization). In this case, the United States is in the form of sanctioning China under the support of Japan and Europe.", and it seems like the financial tightening has already begun.

If America raises interest rates, the developing countries which borrowing a full doller will scream, and the interest rate will rise sharply. The money flow will go backwards including BRICS.

It will be China that suffers the greatest damage, and its economy will collapse as the RMB plunge, and the interest rates rise rapidly. I wonder how far Trump can go. I cannot take my eyes off on it.





I am very surprised that the word "It's my country!" became so popular, and white people who behave outrageously and take racist actions in public got so noticeable nowadays.


Tuesday, June 19, 2018

In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit) is more like a Pro-Wrestling show, and President Trump is stirring American citizens up just like what he did for his own election. The opponent Kim Jong-Un is a villain in the show who does pretty good job as a show man, which reminds me of a Japanese villain wrestler called Great Togo who used to be famous. The current North Korea is more like the Empire of Japan.

Kim Jong-Un is also an actor on that show, so he was wearing the Mao suit in Singapore despite of the hot temperature just because it made the Pro-Wrestling show more interesting. President Trump and Kim Jong-Un were joking at the first meeting saying, "This could be a cool scene of a movie.h and yes, it was truly well made.

North Korea is a small country that only has the size of one of the prefectures in Japan, and the United States, which is considered as one of the strongest countries on Earth, is troubled by such country. It is because there is China, which is another strong country on Earth, back of North Korea.

The intention of Trump is to get North Korea on his side; however, both North Korea and South Korea have been survived by the tightrope diplomacy and act like a bat to do favor for bigger countries. China knows such things very well by now.

From the geographic perspective, Japan has the same situation, as it is also located in between bigger countries. However, from the geopolitical perspective, the strategic value cannot be compared. The Korean Peninsula is just a part of eastern end of the Eurasian continent, and it is just a buffer zone with Japan from Chinese point of view. Japan, on the other hand, is at a key position in the Pacific Ocean. If you hold down Japan then you can seize the sea area from Hawaii to the Indian Ocean.

China cannot invade the Pacific Ocean simply because Japan is there. That is why the United States wants Japan to be under their wings, as they know they can lose the Pacific Ocean if they let Japan go. Trump is trying to build an encirclement network against China, and he abandoned untrustworthy South Korea and is attempting to get North Korea on his side instead as North Korea completed nuclear missiles.

"Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" means that the American nuclear umbrella no longer works for Korea, but Trump clearly agreed to it. In the near future, our neighbor called South Korea may be gone, but it is totally their fault from their gbat diplomacyh.

The United States is a nation which change the color and taste as the president changes. I feel that the United States when Obama was President and when Trump is President are totally different. Depends on the political party of America, either Republican or Democratic, the foreign policy changes significantly, so Japan must pay close attention.

In my Kabushiki Diary, I wrote that the United States would go inward, whether 9.11 happened or not, and it became clearer as they got President Trump.

Mr. Guchi-, who used to work in America for more than 30 years, has met Trump in a business scene. According to Mr. Guchi-, White people who behave outrageously and take racist actions in public got so noticeable nowadays, and as he said, there are lots of crimes or matters, which involve racism, happened. We can say the birth of President Obama, the first black president of the Untied States, has brought a sense of crisis or danger to white people, and they revealed their true nature. That was a motive force of the birth of President Trump.

Many Americans do not know where Japan is or even where New York City is. They are just delighted to see the show that their president had talks with Kim Jong-Un for the first time in history as an entertainment. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I want to know the real intention of American citizens whether they will keep supporting Trump as they are now.





No matter what agreement is made at 2018 North Korea-United States summit (Trump-Kim summit ) on June 12 or at any other occasion, North Korea will not hesitate to do a flip-flop and break promises as it is their unique speciality.

 


Tuesday, June 12, 2018

You can clearly see their diplomatic duplicity (balancing diplomacy they call and bat diplomacy we call) at this summit. But since the United State, China and Russia have strong military powers, they can easily apply military and economic sanctions when being betrayed. The issue is that because Japan does not have a military power, even if North Korea or South Korea betrays, there is no way to apply a military sanction against them.

That is why Japan is a ggreat neighborh for South and North Korea or even for the United States, China and Russia when they got some bills to pay. Japanese politicians will not hesitate to spend money for them as it comes from tax anyway and not from their own wallet. Also, it may bring some benefits or kickbacks to them. This is what is happening in the diplomacy between Japan and South/North Korea.

Then who is paying for the tax? Japanese citizens are, of course. If it helps the victims of the abduction come back, we are more than happy to pay; however, I am being skeptical about that at this summit. The abduction itself was done by Kim Jong-Il, a father of Kim Jong-Un and a former supreme leader of North Korea, and Kim Jong-Un was not directly involved. Therefore, I am afraid he may ask for economic aid in exchange.

In order to avoid that situation, the Prime Minister Abe was repeatedly asking the President Trump to bring up the abduction issue. Then Trump will take advantage of it. The Prime Minister Abe should think about a plan B in case there is no response from them as well as the warning that we will pay nothing for no outcome.

At this summit, it may be settled with no disagreement as the President Trump said. But Kim Jong-Un may do a flip-flop when he goes back to his country. Also, if he is with China or Russia, he will start flattering with them no matter what. This is what we call gbat diplomacyh. In the end, we can say North Korea has no power, and this summit is more like a professional wrestling show.

As it was written in Machiavellifs gThe Princeh, a small country in between stronger countries will be destroyed unless it clarifies which side it takes. Kim Jong-Un needs to choose China or the United States otherwise the two countries will destroy North Korea. Even South Korea has to support the United States whole-heartedly or the United States will destroy them.

From Machiavellifs perspective, North Korea must be on Chinafs side, yet due to the bat diplomacy, both China and the United States are being skeptical about South & North Korea. I do not think Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-Un have ever read gThe Princeh. As you can see from the history, gbat diplomacyh only leads the country to the end.

Especially, the Korean Peninsula is surrounded by powerful countries such as China, Russia and Japan, and also it is divided into two regions. Such small country in between stronger countries must obtain better diplomatic negotiation skills to survive; however, their diplomatic strategy only does a poor job in reality and kept miss judging on which country to take a side of.

Japan is a powerful country. It protected itself from the invasion of the Mongol empire, the ambitions of Spain and Portugal and the colonization of Britain and France. We lost in the fight with the United States and were occupied, yet we were not divided and only required to release the colonies.

In modern times, the most important matter is to choose either China or the United States to be with. North Korea and South Korea still continue to apply gbat diplomacyh in such time. Even for Japan, the decline of the United States and the emergence of China are one of the most crucial matters for not being like a Korean Peninsula.

 In the news yesterday, it seemed like there was no stormy argument, but more like a friendly talk, so I guess Kim Jong-Un was flattering Trump. However, if Kim Jong-Un goes in front of Xi Jinping of China, he will start saying something different just like Moon Jae-in of South Korea. If there are no settlement between the United States and China, no decision will be made by the Korean Peninsula.





In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I wrote against
the increment of consumption tax and the fiscal reconstruction


Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Japan was defeated in the Pacific War and did not really review the reasons and the consequences. We were defeated in the war by the United States not because of the strength of the army but the lack of capable personnel in the army and the government. Why did we have such incapable personnel as the leaders of the government and the army? I believe it is because of the severe seniority system, which might spoil personnel.

 

In a time when the world is stable, you may say that peoplefs ability could be improved by gaining more experiences. However, in an ever-changing and turbulent time, the past experience is useless, and only the person who anticipates the change of time can be a winner. In order to do so, people are required to have a prominent ability and foresight. On the other hand, it is the assumed that the world is never unstable in the seniority system.

 

In the age of the IT revolution and the AI revolution, conventional common sense does not work any longer, and people needs education and reformation that fit to the new generation. Reviewing was in need for that, but as you may see from current Japanese organization theory, things that must be changed have never changed, and people did not yet review the cause of the defeat in the Pacific War.

 

As it appears in the issues of Nihon Universityfs American Football Club and Ministry of Financefs manipulation of documents. When subordinates are ordered to do something by their superiors, even if it is illegal, it seems better to follow the order in the seniority system.

 

The Ministry of Finance has been proud of the esprit de corps for decades, but it is the organization of strong hierarchical culture just like the Japanese Army of the wartime. In addition to that, the Ministry of Finance has been considered as an elite clique, which controls current Japan. Therefore, it was publicly allowed to state some nonsense slogan such as increment of consumption tax and fiscal reconstruction.

 

In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I wrote against the increment of consumption tax and the fiscal reconstruction, but the Ministry of Finance just ignored all. However, with the inauguration of Abefs cabinet as well as his economic and monetary policies, Japan greatly changed the direction to the monetary easing. Yet, the deflationary constitution, which lasted for over twenty years, could not be just dismissed. I may say that it will take another twenty years to get out.

 

From the perspective of the exchange rate, the strong yen was blown away by Kuroda bazooka. Also, while the fiscal policy should blow off the budget deficit with active finances, because of the stupid and incapable financial bureaucrats, we are unable to do so. Even Abefs economic and monetary policies adopt the old financial policies; thus, if we do not carry out a greformh the Ministry of Finance, it seems impossible to strike an expansionary fiscal policy.

 

In my gKabushiki-Nikkih, I pointed that the financial bureaucrats are incompetent. A series of scandals have also proved it. As the executives or superiors show their incompetence, the subordinates also follow them. The Ministry of Finance uses the young staff for persuading politicians to agree with the increment of consumption tax.

 

When I was a banker, I came to question the future of the bank, but at the time, we were able to make lots of money on lending them to major construction companies and real estate companies. Even though I appealed to my boss that such things would not last for a long time, the sales manager did listen at all. I once asked him to promote me to a fund manager, but all he said was gCollect more deposits.h

 

At that time, the bankers who collect deposits were considered good bankers, and it was not important to have the ability of foresight, so I quit the bank and got into the real estate industry. Then the Japanese government adopted an economic policy that tightened the control on the circulation of currency, which made the collapse of bubble economy in Japan. Because of the policy, the yen got really strong, and the export industry has suffered devastating blow, which caused relocation of factories to foreign countries.

 

We can clearly see how stupid the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan are in this twenty years. They only know what is written in textbook. It shows that they do not even understand the analogy of national finance to household economy and the fact that the governmentfs fiscal stimulus is critical to the fiscal reconstruction. Such a mechanism cannot be comprehended if there is no knowledge of microeconomic system, and I guess the financial bureaucrats may not be able to understand it.




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